Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.370556 0.424930 0.483959 0.552729 0.630573 0.715880 0.816376
2025-07-27 0.302471 0.376863 0.463926 0.573058 0.705893 0.862018 1.059105
2025-08-03 0.252054 0.339049 0.448133 0.594280 0.784199 1.021811 1.340696
2025-08-10 0.198495 0.287532 0.406831 0.577141 0.812580 1.124900 1.568603
2025-08-17 0.154590 0.240568 0.363361 0.549611 0.822605 1.205210 1.778394
2025-08-24 0.126078 0.209984 0.337244 0.541530 0.857676 1.323764 2.056774
2025-08-31 0.103360 0.183767 0.312944 0.531784 0.888254 1.439308 2.346033
2025-09-07 0.089456 0.169054 0.303955 0.544150 0.954220 1.616109 2.750754
2025-09-14 0.072853 0.146390 0.277869 0.523835 0.963695 1.704405 3.025996
2025-09-21 0.061336 0.130634 0.260952 0.516324 0.993184 1.828373 3.374539
2025-09-28 0.051537 0.116167 0.243804 0.505361 1.014425 1.940011 3.714536
2025-10-05 0.046283 0.109862 0.241132 0.521217 1.087000 2.150684 4.254444
2025-10-12 0.039901 0.100110 0.230457 0.520746 1.130609 2.318117 4.744471
2025-10-19 0.035413 0.093684 0.225659 0.531737 1.198972 2.541621 5.369555
2025-10-26 0.031716 0.088338 0.222299 0.545347 1.274933 2.789776 6.073712
2025-11-02 0.026429 0.077794 0.205119 0.525167 1.275513 2.885676 6.483350
2025-11-09 0.021611 0.067283 0.185951 0.496928 1.253753 2.931930 6.795490
2025-11-16 0.018506 0.060719 0.175305 0.487386 1.273464 3.069646 7.319430
2025-11-23 0.015847 0.054761 0.165049 0.476981 1.289473 3.200940 7.844645
2025-11-30 0.014342 0.051947 0.162754 0.486973 1.357175 3.458282 8.683953
2025-12-07 0.012060 0.046025 0.150503 0.467836 1.347987 3.534197 9.112133
2025-12-14 0.010477 0.042001 0.142961 0.460478 1.368425 3.683591 9.731298
2025-12-21 0.009044 0.038087 0.134923 0.450200 1.379352 3.810591 10.310138